Is our current prosperity based on carbon emissions?

The IPCC Sixth Assessment contained lots of fascinating insight and data, but one aspect which struck me and led me to do more analysis and research was the clear demonstration that western 'developed' economies had emitted the lion's share of CO2 emissions cumulatively.  It made me wonder to what extent our current prosperity is based on the level of carbon emissions historically (1850-2019 to be precise)

So the question I set out to answer was "Is the developed world's current high GDP per Capita as a result of previous CO2 emissions?"

This is KISSing Sustainability, so keeping it short and sweet....  "Yes!"

As the graph shows there is a Very Strong correlation between Historic CO2 Emissions per Capita and Current GDP / Capita.

For the mathematicians amongst you the actual correlation coefficient is 0.942

Now I know that correlation does not prove causation; but given that there is strong evidence much of the economic growth the West has seen (certainly until the recent technology stock boom) is based on coal, oil, gas and related products, in this case it seems fair to say that correlation and causation are both there in this instance.

The logical conclusion therefore is that whilst we might like to try and put our great economic progress down to intellect, hard work, innovation, moral superiority or whatever else; the reality is that it has been driven by our use of fossil fuels leading to CO2 emissions and the current climate crisis. 

To put this into perspective if Global GDP / Capita increased to the current European GDP / Capita as current average global carbon intensity; annual GHG emissions would increase from 59GT to 149GT.  Over 250% increase.

Surely this highlights the moral obligation on the West to not only immediately halt any further expansion of fossil fuels usage but also to urgently support all other economies with a rapid transition to renewable energy.  The alternative is that we deny the poorest in the world the opportunity for the benefits we enjoy now

All three parts of ESG - Environment, Social and Governance - are therefore critical and must be addressed together

What are your thoughts? 

Keep KISSing Sustainability.  Simon xx